Tag: Artificial Intelligence

  • STAT+: Why health AI pilots in Utah may be on a collision course with the FDA

    STAT+: Why health AI pilots in Utah may be on a collision course with the FDA

    You’re reading the web edition of STAT’s AI Prognosis newsletter

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    Brittany Trang, Ph.D., covers AI in health and medicine: Does it actually work? Who benefits, or might be harmed? She writes the weekly AI Prognosis newsletter. Follow her on Threads, Mastodon, and Bluesky. You can reach Brittany on Signal at btrang.01.

    Mario covers technology in health care, including FDA regulation of artificial intelligence; how Medicare pays for health tech; the use of AI in clinical care; mental health chatbots; and consumer wearables. He’s also the co-author of the free, twice weekly STAT Health Tech newsletter. You can reach Mario on Signal at mariojoze.13.

    This is the web edition of STAT’s AI Prognosis newsletter, our guide to artificial intelligence in health care and medicine. Sign up to get it delivered in your inbox every Wednesday. 

    I have refused to read or watch “The Love Hypothesis” — I referred to it as the “Title IX movie” the other day when I forgot its name. But the clips are inescapable on my Instagram feed, and the science gaffes seem … real bad. Absolute butchering of how academia works? The impossible chemistry on the poster? Wearing miniskirts in the lab? Vortexing a test tube? *shudders*

    Once again: I firmly believe STAT would allow me to consult on science-related elements on film sets. Offers for Hollywood gigs, health tech story tips, comments: [email protected]

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    1. Brittany Trang, Ph.D., covers AI in health and medicine: Does it actually work? Who benefits, or might be harmed? She writes the weekly AI Prognosis newsletter. Follow her on Threads, Mastodon, and Bluesky. You can reach Brittany on Signal at btrang.01.

    2. Health Tech Correspondent

      Mario covers technology in health care, including FDA regulation of artificial intelligence; how Medicare pays for health tech; the use of AI in clinical care; mental health chatbots; and consumer wearables. He’s also the co-author of the free, twice weekly STAT Health Tech newsletter. You can reach Mario on Signal at mariojoze.13.

  • From Distributor to Disruptor: Amazon’s Healthcare Flex

    From Distributor to Disruptor: Amazon’s Healthcare Flex

    Could this be Big Tech’s ultimate healthcare flex? For years, Amazon’s ambitions in this $4 trillion market were focused on distribution: acquire a pharmacy here, a primary care network there, and offer convenience.

    But more recently, rather than deploying capital to expand its fulfillment engine, Amazon exercised its cloud and AI muscle to launch tools that enable it to be a “front door” for consumers and patients. From the looks of it, the e-commerce giant has shifted, from competing for a piece of the healthcare journey to collapsing the entire journey into one company.

    In any case, pharma commercialization teams may need to think about Amazon less as a new distributor and more as a disruptor of how patients, prescribers, and payers connect.

    Analyzing the moves

    Big Tech has upended many industries, but the highly regulated and complex healthcare industry has seemed impervious to their influence. Judging by Amazon’s most recent forays, however, this sector may not represent an innovator’s “white whale” for much longer.

    Amazon has closed the “last mile” between writing a prescription and filling it. At One Medical clinics (Amazon’s primary care venture), pharmacy kiosks now let a patient walk out of an appointment with medication in hand, filled by the same company that just diagnosed them. Its oral GLP-1 management program, a recently introduced offering, takes this even further. 

    This year, One Medical also launched an AI-enabled assistant, with access to test results, medical history, and more. The AI agent, dubbed Health AI, can help book medical appointments or provide medical information, such as an explanation of lab results. This clearly strengthens One Medical’s abilities as a provider and can help in enhancing the patient experience all the way through drug dispensing.

    More critically to pharma, Amazon’s Health AI also automatically applies manufacturer coupons and copay assistance programs for eligible patients. On the HCP side, Amazon’s integration with DoseSpot and eNavvi places patient net out-of-pocket at the point of prescribing.

    Health AI subsequently moved beyond the One Medical app, embedding directly into Amazon.com and its mobile app, marking the first time the tool has been available at scale to general consumers, and further enmeshing the patient experience into the overall Amazon environment. These offerings are available to anyone, regardless of being a One Medical member.

    4 potential shake-ups

    The result: Screening, prescribing, fulfillment, and ongoing renewal all happen inside one Amazon-run loop. No outside touchpoint is required.

    That loop doesn’t just change where a patient enters the system and picks up a prescription. It changes the nature of a healthcare “provider,” how care is delivered (including drug fulfillment), and who sees the full picture of a patient’s care. 

    In other words, this shift isn’t just a single disruption; it’s four separate ones. Here’s the “where” and “how” of those potential shake-ups:

    • The HCP relationship: Who manages a condition over time, not just who writes the first script?
    • Channel and patient experience: Who owns the point of fill, and how seamless is the drug-fulfillment experience?
    • Price transparency and patient OOP: How much of a role does real-world price play, for both prescribers and patients, and how do coupon and copay assistance programs need to adapt?
    • Data visibility: Does the full patient journey, from diagnosis to refill, sit outside the purview of traditional pharma data sources, or is it somehow still captured? 

    The four categories aren’t equally mature. And that has real implications for where pharma commercialization teams focus first. 

    Where pharma should focus

    The first two of the above categories are already live with the GLP-1 program. That is, ongoing management of a chronic condition now sits inside Amazon’s own clinical protocol, not a patient’s existing PCP or specialist. And prescribing, fulfillment, and refill take place in a channel pharma doesn’t traditionally call upon.

    GLP-1 is a favorable starting point for this model because it’s heavily consumer-driven and manageable in primary care, so the loop doesn’t need specialist judgment to run. And the GLP-1 cash-pay models give Amazon room to control pricing directly. Moreover, weight-loss management is a long-term, recurring relationship, which is exactly the kind of retention Amazon’s model is built for. 

    Beyond the cash market, Amazon’s ability to automatically apply coupons and copay assistance offers the opportunity for accelerated product uptake, accompanied by significant downside risks to product gross-to-net.  

    If your brand touches a condition that could be managed this way, GLP-1 isn’t a case study to read with curiosity. It’s a preview. Teams should be asking if and how this loop affects prescribing and fulfillment for their therapeutic area; that’s the immediate gap to close. 

    Conditions that depend on specialist diagnosis, complex or in-clinic administration, or those with reimbursement complexity, are a much harder fit for this model (at least for now). The therapeutic areas to watch first are protocol-friendly, primary-care-managed, chronic, and with a cash-pay market underneath.

    Payers and data

    Amazon’s impact on the payer space is at an earlier stage, but the signals are worth tracking closely. Amazon has already become the exclusive home delivery pharmacy for select PBM partners, including its own employee health plan. While that’s a narrow footprint today, whether it stays narrow or expands to further erode the traditional PBM mail-order business is the open question. Every new deal is a data point worth logging.

    Data visibility is the slowest mover of the four categories, and possibly the hardest to predict. Cash-pay markets already have data holes. Adherence and outcomes in these markets have always been harder to capture, since the transaction doesn’t run through the claims and pharmacy systems pharma is used to watching. 

    The bigger exposure is what happens if this extends into broader chronic disease management. Even losing part of a patient’s journey, say the fulfillment and refill half, is enough to break the continuity pharma relies on for adherence programs and tracking the various outcome measures of marketed treatments. 

    Other industries offer a useful, if uncomfortable, reference point. Retail went through its own version of this: Vertically integrated fulfillment that started as a convenience play eventually became infrastructure that competitors couldn’t easily match on price or speed. 

    That pattern is worth keeping in mind, not as a prediction of exactly how this plays out in life sciences, but as a reminder that the “early and narrow” phase doesn’t stay that way indefinitely.

    None of this is a call to panic. It’s a case for watching the right signals. The clearest one: which therapeutic area Amazon’s loop expands into next.

    Photo: undefined undefined, Getty Images

    Adrienne Lovink

    As CEO, Adrienne Lovink is leading Beghou’s next phase of growth and building on its reputation as a trusted commercialization partner in life sciences. She is focused on expanding into new areas of client demand; advancing the firm’s data, AI, analytics, and technology innovation; and investing in its people and culture. Adrienne has over 25 years of experience partnering with pharmaceutical and medical device companies to advance commercialization, market access, forecasting, digital health, real-world data, and advanced analytics, including as a Partner at Trinity Life Sciences and Global Head of Real-World Data and Advanced Analytics at DRG / Clarivate.

    This post appears through the MedCity Influencers program. Anyone can publish their perspective on business and innovation in healthcare on MedCity News through MedCity Influencers. Click here to find out how.

  • STAT+: AstraZeneca opens new Boston site 

    STAT+: AstraZeneca opens new Boston site 

    Utah pilots AI service to prescribe acne treatment, drug price disclosures are coming, and more biotech news

    HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images

    Elaine’s stories explore the boom in new obesity treatments, new drug payment models, the ways companies are affected by FDA changes, and the emerging psychedelics drug sector. She co-writes The Readout newsletter, and co-hosts STAT’s weekly biotech podcast, The Readout Loud. You can reach Elaine on Signal at elaineywchen.70.

    Allison covers what hot startups are getting up to, and who’s financing them. She is also co-host of the weekly biotech podcast, “The Readout Loud.” You can reach Allison on Signal at AllisonDeAngelis.01.

    Want to stay on top of the science and politics driving biotech today? Sign up to get our biotech newsletter in your inbox.

    Good morning. From DC to Boston to Utah, we’ve got news from all over today.

    The need-to-know this morning

    • BridgeBio said the FDA granted priority review to its oral treatment for children with achondroplasia, a common form of dwarfism. An approval decision on the drug, called infigratinib, is expected by Feb. 4, 2027. 
    • Japan’s Shionogi has acquired for $2 billion the U.S.-based biotech IntraBio, the maker of an approved drug that treats the neurological symptoms of two rare diseases. 
    • Arrivent Biopharma said its experimental treatment for exon 20-mutated lung cancer failed to delay tumor progression in a Phase 3 study.

    Trump admin says drug price disclosures are coming

    Trump administration officials said yesterday they will start developing a system for health insurers to disclose prescription drug prices, and a “hopeful” final plan will come out by next May.

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    1. National Biotech Reporter

      Elaine’s stories explore the boom in new obesity treatments, new drug payment models, the ways companies are affected by FDA changes, and the emerging psychedelics drug sector. She co-writes The Readout newsletter, and co-hosts STAT’s weekly biotech podcast, The Readout Loud. You can reach Elaine on Signal at elaineywchen.70.

    2. Biotech Startups and Venture Capital Reporter

      Allison covers what hot startups are getting up to, and who’s financing them. She is also co-host of the weekly biotech podcast, “The Readout Loud.” You can reach Allison on Signal at AllisonDeAngelis.01.

  • Opinion: I’m a doctor. Here’s what I want the public to know about AI tools and health care costs

    Opinion: I’m a doctor. Here’s what I want the public to know about AI tools and health care costs

    When Blue Cross Blue Shield recently published research suggesting that hospitals use artificial intelligence tools to extract more money from insurers without providing additional care, people were mad. Amid growing concerns about AI, one glimmer of hope has been its potential to improve health — and yet, here it was: inflating health care costs without yielding any benefits.

    As a doctor who has used the kinds of tools being criticized, I’m frustrated, too: We can document honestly and still wind up inflating hospital bills. This is because comorbidities function as an on-off switch with respect to billing, even though they affect patient care in nuanced ways.

    Although the problem warrants a systemic fix, the best short-term solution is for hospitals to create more nuanced documentation tools, and for clinicians to exercise judgment when using them.

    What did the research show?

    BCBS suggested hospitals are using automated tools to document secondary diagnoses — like anemia, malnutrition, and low sodium — which allow them to charge more for caring for these patients.

    For instance, a patient might be admitted for diverticulitis (primary diagnosis), but found on post-op labs to have acute blood-loss anemia (secondary diagnosis). Hospitals can use these secondary diagnoses to label a patient as having a comorbidity or a complication, allowing them to bill more for the hospitalization, whether or not they treated the patient’s anemia. These “bump codes” have cost BCBS hundreds of millions of dollars over the past two years, and these costs are presumably passed along to patients in the form of higher premiums.

    BCBS claims that bump coding has become more widespread because hospitals are using AI tools to identify secondary diagnoses. Automated tools can skim a patient’s chart and prompt physicians to document that the patient is, for instance, anemic, and what they are doing about it.

    Are doctors to blame?

    A few weeks after I started medical residency, I began getting emails from hospital administrators I had never met, whose signatures said they were risk adjustment specialists. The emails were generic and polite, advising me to review clinical documentation integrity (CDI) queries on inpatients I was caring for. If I didn’t respond quickly, the request would be forwarded to the attending physician supervising me. A typical CDI query would point out that my note hadn’t commented on, say, a patient’s low sodium level, and would ask me to document that they had low sodium and what (if anything) we were doing about it.

    Like most residents, I was already spending far more time on my computer than I was with my patients. Soon, CDI queries streamed into my inbox with such regularity that I turned to a more senior doctor to ask how I might stave them off. That doctor showed me an automated tool that I could include in my notes. This tool would assess a patient’s lab results, automatically detect any additional diagnoses a patient had (like anemia, malnutrition, or low sodium), and prompt me to specify whether we were monitoring, evaluating, or treating.

    I assumed it was lucrative to the hospital for me to document these diagnoses (why else would they be paying risk adjustment specialists to email me about them?), but we almost always were at least monitoring the secondary diagnosis in question, and I accurately documented as much.

    Including this tool’s outputs in my notes kept the risk adjustment specialists from hounding me and won me back several minutes of each day — enough time to poke my head into a patient’s room before I went home, or call a patient’s family member to give a quick update. I always answered the questions included in my tool honestly, but in the back of my mind, I wondered whether I was doing my patients a disservice: Was I inflating the cost of their hospitalizations without actually improving their care?

    Where bump codes come from

    In general, hospitals are reimbursed for hospitalizing patients on the basis of diagnosis-related groups, or DRGs. DRG payments are set by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services by analyzing claims data. (Medicare uses DRGs to set payments, while many commercial insurers, including BCBS, use the DRG system to negotiate reimbursement rates with hospitals.) Let’s say a patient is admitted with diverticulitis requiring surgery (typically billed as DRG 331 if there are no complications). CMS has estimated how much it usually costs to care for one of these patients and insurers prospectively pay hospitals on that basis; a hospital generally won’t get reimbursed more for keeping the patient longer, administering more drugs, placing more IVs, and so on.

    However, some hospitals care for sicker patients than others. The typical diverticulitis patient at a tertiary medical center in a poor area will require more support than a diverticulitis patient at a community hospital in an affluent area. The government does not want to penalize hospitals that see more complex patients, and so it allows hospitals to seek additional reimbursement forcomorbidities or complications that increase the cost of their care.

    This is where bump codes come from: Hospitals can bill more complex diverticulitis admissions as DRG 330, which is reimbursed at a higher rate. Not all comorbidities or complications count: In 2007, the last time DRGs were substantially changed, CMS analyzed claims data and used this analysis to decide which conditions qualify and set reimbursement rates. CMS pays hospitals more for patients with conditions like low sodium because it has found that it costs hospitals more to care for these patients (perhaps because they tend to be hospitalized longer and more often require ICU admissions).

    However, although CMS adjusts DRG payments from year to year, the list of bump codes hasn’t been overhauled in nearly two decades.

    Bump codes can help identify complex patients and ensure hospitals are paid more for caring for them. These are good things, in part because they reduce hospitals’ incentive to seek out healthier, more advantaged patients. While BCBS claims that hospitals are increasingly using these codes to bill more without actually providing more care, hospitals would presumably counter that they were being insufficiently reimbursed before, and that their coding is accurate. After all, the BCBS study does not claim that hospitals are engaging in fraud; the question is just whether the lab abnormalities hospitals are billing for warrant higher reimbursements.

    So who’s right?

    This issue boils down to the following question: How much more does it cost to care for a patient with a secondary condition, and do current coding rules accurately reflect this?

    The answer is that it depends. For instance, not all low sodium levels are created equal. If a patient briefly has a sodium level that falls below the normal range, but their sodium immediately corrects once they’re able to eat again, they probably don’t require any additional resources, and hospitals shouldn’t be reimbursed more for caring for them.

    By contrast, a patient with dangerously low sodium levels requiring an ICU stay, frequent lab checks, and carefully titrated IV fluids undoubtedly does use more resources.

    This leaves doctors in a tough spot: Risk adjustment specialists ask us to document real diagnoses that we know could increase the cost of a patient’s bill, but we have no idea by how much. Moreover, there’s no medical school module on how much any of these comorbidities affects the true cost of the hospitalization. Against this backdrop, it makes sense that doctors try to just tell the truth: yes, this patient has low sodium, and we are monitoring it, even though this probably allows hospitals to code some patients as being more resource-intensive than they truly are.

    What we can agree on

    This entire enterprise — risk adjustment specialists spamming doctors, who are already nose-deep in documentation burden, to document diagnoses that often do not affect patient care, while insurers publish reports that fail to capture the nuance of the issue, leaving the public angry and confused — highlights a more general problem with respect to how the U.S. health care system works.

    By design, hospitals and insurers are meant to compete with each other, with hospitals trying to collect as much money as they can for providing care, and insurers trying to pay as little as possible. Hospitals bolster their side by hiring risk adjustment specialists and employing AI tools, while health insurers hire payment integrity specialists and employ different AI tools.

    Patients lose out because the administrative bloat inflates the cost of medical care, while making costs less transparent and harder to contest. Ultimately, the fix should be structural: At a minimum, we need to overhaul the list of secondary conditions that are eligible for bump coding. CMS attempted to do this in 2019, when it proposed downgrading or eliminating many bump codes based on new data showing they were not associated with increased costs. But hospitals pushed back, and the effort eventually stalled.

    What should we do in the meantime?

    Secondary diagnoses are supposed to be billed only when they are clinically significant — for instance, when they require further evaluation, treatment, diagnostic procedures, or monitoring. But in practice, the bar for clinical significance is probably lower than it should be. (Even rechecking a lab may qualify as monitoring.) Accordingly, I suspect the BCBS study is tracking a real problem, and that much of the documentation of secondary diagnoses isn’t linked to patient complexity.

    Early in residency, I was caring for an immunosuppressed patient who kept spiking fevers. My colleagues and I wondered whether he might have an indolent infection lurking somewhere and ordered an echocardiogram to rule out endocarditis. His heart valves showed no signs of bacterial growth, but trace backflow was detected across one of his valves, a finding present in most people.

    Soon, I received a CDI query inviting me to document his valve dysfunction in my note. I did not do this, because his incidental valve finding was irrelevant to his hospitalization. Instead, I typed out a response indicating as much. However, it would have been easier and quicker to click through the check boxes, and, despite answering them honestly, potentially inflate the patient’s bill.

    At least some CDI tools built into electronic medical records — including the one I have used — default to including secondary diagnoses in ways that are likely to lead to bump coding. One way to improve the status quo would be to ensure that such tools give physicians the option to document whether a secondary diagnosis is clinically significant or not, rather than simply asking them how they are addressing it (on the presumption that it is clinically significant).

    Hospitals should build such tools, and regulators should ensure they do. In the meantime, I’ll exercise clinical judgment when using my CDI tool — if the low sodium seems important, I’ll document it, and if it doesn’t, I’ll politely decline when a risk adjustment specialist invariably asks me to.

    Leah Pierson is a resident physician.

  • Equitable Care Depends on Intelligent Infrastructure: Actuarial AI and Value-Based Risk Contracts

    Equitable Care Depends on Intelligent Infrastructure: Actuarial AI and Value-Based Risk Contracts

    Najib Jai, MD, Chief Operating Officer, Arbital Health

    Equitable access to health care is more than just about geographical coverage. It depends on the healthcare system’s ability to identify risk early, intervene intelligently, and sustain those interventions across the most clinically and socially complex populations.

    This is why many value-based care (VBC) models struggle. Underserved Medicaid and Medicare populations frequently experience a disproportionate burden of chronic diseases, behavioral health challenges, transportation barriers, food insecurity, language gaps, and disconnected care journeys. Once patients present in the emergency department or experience an avoidable admission, the opportunity for lower-cost, lower-acuity care is often less possible. 

    The challenges are well understood – most organizations are still operating with lagging data, subsequent incomplete visibility into contract performance, and limited ability to connect contractual risk with clinical action in real time. As healthcare continues shifting toward value-oriented reimbursement models, equitable care delivery increasingly depends on infrastructure capable of turning population-level data into timely, actionable clinical and operational decisions.

    One Provider’s Experience

    A large provider organization that serves roughly 141,000 Medicaid and Medicare patients recently confronted this reality. Nearly 45% of its patients managing diabetes were also navigating multiple comorbidities, creating a population vulnerable to acute exacerbations, hospitalizations, and readmissions.

    The organization faced significant operational headwinds common to many serving underserved communities. Payer data often arrived months late, making it difficult to understand why contracts were under-performing or which patients were trending toward acute episodes before costs escalated. The organization was effectively trying to manage complex value-based risk arrangements while looking backward through incomplete data.

    Unfortunately, this dynamic is not unique; across healthcare, providers serving high-risk populations are frequently asked to manage increasingly sophisticated contracts without the same actuarial visibility historically available to payers. The result is reactive care management instead of proactive intervention, particularly for populations where earlier outreach can make the greatest difference. Actuarial AI and predictive intelligence can help alter VBC’s trajectory by offering a more comprehensive, forward-looking framework. 

    Traditional Predictive Models Aren’t Up to the Challenge

    Traditional predictive models often focus narrowly on utilization forecasting or retrospective reporting. The next generation of actuarial AI systems is beginning to amalgamate claims data, contract logic, demographics, utilization trends, and clinical workflows into a more operationally useful framework. Instead of simply identifying what happened, these systems can help organizations understand what is likely to happen next, and where intervention opportunities exist before costs spike.

    The Importance of Operationalizing Insight 

    Risk presents heterogeneously across communities, age groups, languages, comorbidity profiles, and care access patterns; a one-size-fits-all intervention strategy inevitably leaves gaps. Predictive intelligence that can stratify risk dynamically across diverse patient populations allows providers to target outreach more precisely and allocate finite care management resources where they can have the greatest impact. This reduces costs as well as the friction that prevents appropriate care from happening proactively.

    Much like with the technology that has preceded it, we’ve learned that AI adoption in healthcare only succeeds when it streamlines and is integrated into existing workflows rather than creating new administrative burdens. Physicians are not resistant to tools that help them, just to those that add unnecessary steps to already compressed processes and cluttered workdays. Organizations most likely to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations will not necessarily be the ones with the most sophisticated dashboards, but the ones capable of operationalizing insight directly into care delivery. If AI can surface which patients are at risk for avoidable admissions, identify the clinical and social drivers contributing to that risk, and simplify the pathway for intervention, then providers can act earlier and more impactfully.

    Actuarial AI in Action

    The experience of the provider organization mentioned earlier offers a practical example. After implementing actuarial AI tools, they were able to analyze utilization patterns and contract performance in real time, uncovering insights that traditional reporting had obscured. While initial payer data suggested pediatrics and OB were driving readmissions, deeper analysis identified hypertension as a leading root cause of avoidable hospital utilization. That insight materially changed their intervention strategy.

    The system launched a hypertension management initiative specifically targeting Medicaid and Medicare patients with complex comorbidities, embedding prompts into clinical workflows and expanding outreach to previously unengaged patients within its risk contracts. Multi-lingual engagement campaigns helped convert previously disconnected patients back into care.

    The organization moved from reacting to adverse events after they occurred to identifying risk trajectories earlier enough to intervene. That is the promise of combining actuarial AI with VBC infrastructure: strengthening the system’s ability to consistently deliver appropriate care at scale.

    Transparency and Trust Are Critical Ingredients

    There is a growing tension between regulated clinical AI and the informal use of ungoverned AI tools across healthcare environments. Across the industry, leaders agree that black-box outputs cannot become the foundation for clinical, operational, or financial decision-making.

    For AI-driven VBC models to meaningfully support underserved populations, providers must understand how risk is being calculated, how interventions are prioritized, and how recommendations align with real-world patient needs. Otherwise, the industry risks replicating existing inequities inside more sophisticated systems.

    The Future of Equitable Care

    The future of equitable care delivery will depend on whether healthcare organizations can unify clinical intelligence, actuarial rigor, and operational execution into a single framework that supports both outcomes and sustainability. Healthcare already possesses enormous volumes of claims, utilization, demographic, and clinical information. The problem has been the inability to synthesize and operationalize that information quickly enough to change patient trajectories while there is still time to act. Actuarial AI and predictive intelligence are beginning to close that gap.

    As VBC continues to evolve, the organizations best positioned to improve equity may be the ones that can transform data into earlier intervention, precise outreach, and more informed clinical decisions, not just for the easiest patients, but for the populations that healthcare has historically struggled to serve well.


    About Najib Jai, MD,

    Dr. Najib Jai, MD, is the Chief Operating Officer of Arbital Health. His career evolved from supporting value based care (VBC) models through private equity investing to joining Oak Street Health to lead specialty care strategy, improving outcomes for patients with complex, multimorbid conditions. He later co-founded Conduce Health, pioneering the first multi-specialty VBC platforms that match the right specialist with the right patient, considering their social drivers of health. Through predictive modeling and innovative contracting structures, his work improved care coordination and outcomes for high-risk populations. Now at Arbital Health, Dr. Jai continues to influence the industry by embedding clinical and operational insight into its Actuarial AI infrastructure, which enables payers and providers to identify the highest-risk members and their emergent needs to drive positive outcomes at scale.

  • Bain & Bessemer 2026 Scorecard Reveals Healthcare AI Delivers 3.5x ROI in 12 Months

    Bain & Bessemer 2026 Scorecard Reveals Healthcare AI Delivers 3.5x ROI in 12 Months

    Bain & Bessemer 2026 Scorecard Reveals Healthcare AI Delivers 3.5x ROI in 12 Months

    What You Should Know

    • Bessemer Venture Partners and Bain & Company published their joint benchmark report, The 2026 Healthcare AI ROI Scorecard, surveying 226 healthcare C-suite executives across 65 discrete use cases spanning health systems, commercial payers, and biopharma enterprises.
    • The multi-year transformation has compressed rapidly: while 84% of healthcare executives in 2025 expected generative AI to transform treatment decisions within three to five years, 71% confirm it already has in 2026.
    • Financial payback is arriving twice as fast as originally underwritten: enterprise buyers modeled a 24-month horizon, yet realized a material return within ~12 months, generating an average 3.5x return on investment (ROI) and exceeding initial financial underwriting in roughly 40% of deployed use cases (with 54% seeing material ROI within year one).

    Realized ROI and Autonomy Across Enterprise Domains

    Rather than relying on soft satisfaction surveys or speculative multi-year projections, the 2026 Scorecard tracks realized return multiples on deployed capital:

    • Provider Revenue Cycle Management (RCM): Delivers a 4.0x realized ROI, with 67% of solutions operating as semi- or fully autonomous agents. Value is primarily driven by faster speed to output, increased net revenue capture, and direct labor efficiencies.
    • Payer Claims Operations: Generates a 3.4x realized ROI, powered by direct FTE reductions and accelerated claims turnaround times.
    • Pharma Preclinical Discovery: Posts a 3.4x realized ROI, driven by frontier model efficiency gains across target identification and molecular screening pipelines.
    • Payer Provider Network Management: Achieves a 3.3x realized ROI, primarily through accelerated credentialing timelines and automated directory maintenance.
    • Payer Member Engagement: Delivers a 3.2x realized ROI, with 62% of solutions deployed as semi- or fully autonomous agents that handle digital navigation and inbound call deflection.
    • Provider Front Office (Patient Access): Returns a 3.1x realized ROI, driven by conversational scheduling agents that expand capacity capture, maximize slot utilization, and reduce patient no-show rates.
    • Provider Clinical Workflows: Sits at a 2.9x realized ROI, with only 4% of solutions running with semi- or fully autonomous agency. Returns remain concentrated in optimized decision-making and quality metrics rather than hard-dollar labor reductions or new top-line revenue.
    • Pharma Commercial: Realizes a 2.6x realized ROI, led by field-force targeting and automated marketing content generation.
    • Pharma Clinical Development: Achieves a 2.3x realized ROI, where realizing near-term value remains constrained by multi-year clinical trial execution timelines.
    • Payback Speed Has Exposed Systematic Underinvestment: Nearly every enterprise healthcare AI budget approved between 2024 and 2025 assumed a 24-month payback window. Because actual returns landed in roughly 12 months—exceeding expectations in approximately 40% of use cases—organizations continuing to model two-year paybacks are materially underinvesting relative to their own realized financial performance.
    • The Decay of Internal Hospital Builds: In 2025, health systems heavily favored proprietary internal software builds. Today, 61% of organizations report that half or fewer of their internally developed AI tools are still actively maintained and in use, with 32% reporting that less than a quarter survived. While internal IT teams successfully created functional MVPs, they struggled to maintain production-grade reliability, manage model drift, and defend algorithms during compliance audits.
    • Aggressive Vendor Consolidation: 42% of healthcare buyers have completed or are actively executing vendor consolidation initiatives, driven by desires to simplify their IT stacks (37%) and reduce software licensing costs (32%). Market share for recent deployments shifted sharply toward healthcare-specific AI vendors (+12 percentage points) and established HCIT incumbents (+7 percentage points), while internal builds dropped by 16 percentage points.
    • Platform Wedges Outcompeting Point Tools: With 57% of executives reporting that they are inundated by point-solution pitches, enterprise momentum has consolidated around platforms that entered via a sharp clinical or operational wedge (such as Abridge in ambient scribing or SmarterDx in prebill review) and systematically expanded into adjacent administrative workflows.
    • Workforce Restructuring and Headcount Reductions: 50% of surveyed organizations have already reduced headcount as a direct result of AI or plan to within six months, with targeted reductions averaging 8% to 13% of affected functions.
    • Labor Displacement Centered in the Back Office: Workforce reductions track financial returns closely: 73% of providers reporting labor cuts cite revenue cycle and billing, while 71% of payers cite claims operations.
    • Absorbing Structural Shortages Over Mass Displacement: Back-office automation is cushioning severe structural labor shortages rather than creating net unemployment. With the American Medical Association estimating a 30% nationwide shortage of certified medical coders (and the average certified coder now over age 50), automation closes an unfillable labor gap. Furthermore, health systems are actively redeploying clinical administrative staff—such as utilization review nurses—back into bedside care management and patient coordination.

    The Clinical AI Paradox: Four Blockers to the $3 Trillion Opportunity

    While 71% of healthcare executives state that generative AI has already begun transforming clinical treatment decisions (up from an expected 3-to-5-year horizon in 2025), clinical AI realization significantly lags administrative workflows, constrained by four structural barriers:

    • The Trust and Override Gap: Only 46% of clinicians trust AI-generated tools for clinical decision-making, and 77% override AI clinical recommendations more than half the time. Clinicians report that establishing trust requires stronger peer-reviewed clinical validation (67%), transparent recommendation rationales (53%), patient-specific performance data (47%), and native EHR integration (44%).
    • Individual Clinician Liability: 58% of providers affirm that the treating clinician bears primary legal responsibility for AI-influenced decisions, and 50% identify medico-legal exposure as the primary reason clinical AI fails to scale past pilots. The 77% override rate reflects a rational risk-mitigation strategy by clinicians who bear personal malpractice liability.
    • Regulatory and Compliance Ambiguity: 36% of organizations have canceled or delayed a clinical AI deployment due to regulatory uncertainty, driven by the absence of established FDA post-market surveillance regimes for autonomous, pan-indication clinical reasoning models.
    • Payment and Reimbursement Architecture: Fee-for-service payment models reimburse clinician time and specific procedural actions, offering no established billing codes for autonomous algorithmic care delivery. 48% of commercial payers explicitly refuse to reimburse fully autonomous AI care, whereas only 5% object to AI-assisted care where a clinician reviews and signs off on the recommendation.

    Reader Interactions

  • STAT+: Utah plows ahead with more health AI pilots for prescriptions, women’s health

    STAT+: Utah plows ahead with more health AI pilots for prescriptions, women’s health

    Mario covers technology in health care, including FDA regulation of artificial intelligence; how Medicare pays for health tech; the use of AI in clinical care; mental health chatbots; and consumer wearables. He’s also the co-author of the free, twice weekly STAT Health Tech newsletter. You can reach Mario on Signal at mariojoze.13.

    Utah regulators on Monday announced a plan to allow an artificial intelligence product to evaluate patients for acne treatment and write new drug prescriptions without prior human review. 

    A startup called Nolla Health will launch an AI-powered service in the state that will assess a patient for mild-to-moderate acne treatment using a structured intake and by analyzing photos of their skin. The product may determine whether one of a list of low-risk drugs is appropriate. In the first stages of the pilot, the decisions of the AI will be reviewed by a licensed clinician who will sign off on prescriptions, but Nolla may eventually be allowed to prescribe drugs without this review. The company last year announced it raised $4.5 million from investors including General Catalyst, and Nolla aspires to direct treatment for a host of conditions using AI.

    The new pilot is part of a significant expansion of a closely watched “AI sandbox” program that allows Utah’s Office of Artificial Intelligence Policy, or OAIP, to waive regulations, including around the practice of medicine, for companies that want to test AI products under state supervision. 

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  • The Biggest Healthcare Fix Might Not Come From a Vendor

    The Biggest Healthcare Fix Might Not Come From a Vendor

    Healthcare has one recurring diagnosis when it comes to software: the people who see the problem most clearly are almost never the ones allowed to fix it. A front-desk lead knows exactly which scheduling step causes no-shows. A billing manager can tell you, to the minute, where a claim stalls. But turning that knowledge into a working tool has always required someone else, like a developer, a vendor, or a build queue.

    Vibe coding is starting to close that gap, and we’re seeing the successes beginning to emerge in dental tech. The idea is simple: describe what you want in plain language, and an AI system generates a working version of it, refined through conversation instead of code. It’s spread quickly across general software development. What’s less understood is what happens when it reaches an industry where the stakes and regulations are much higher.

    Why healthcare needed this more than most

    For twenty years, fixing a broken workflow has followed the same script. A clinician or administrator flags the problem, hands it off to a software team, and waits, often a year or more, for something to come back. What comes back rarely matches what was described, because something always gets lost in the handoff between the person who understands the problem and the person who has to build around a secondhand account of it.

    That handoff exists because coding ability has always gated who gets to build software. Knowing what’s wrong and knowing how to fix it in code have been two separate jobs, held by two different people. Vibe coding doesn’t erase the second job. It shrinks how much of it you need on day one, which means far more people can now act directly on problems they already understand instead of routing that understanding through someone else.

    That distinction matters most in an industry where the shortage was never insight. Ask anyone working the floor of a dental practice or a billing office what’s actually broken, and they’ll answer instantly. It’s the 20-minute hold with an insurer. It’s the note written twice: once for the chart, once for the payor. It’s the referral that vanishes into a fax or email and resurfaces three weeks later. Nobody has ever needed convincing on what to fix. What they’ve lacked is a way to act on it themselves, in something close to real time instead of on a vendor’s roadmap.

    Faster, but also different

    The old chain — request, prioritization meeting, development sprint, rollout — usually delivered a solution well after the problem had stopped being anyone’s top concern. Vibe coding shortens that chain by letting the person who lives inside the workflow build the first working version of the fix, often in less time than it used to take to write up the request.

    In an industry where administrative burden is a leading driver of clinician burnout, that’s not just a speed gain. It changes who gets to build, and how much distance sits between spotting a problem and doing something about it.

    Guardrails have to come first, not after

    None of this holds up if it’s treated as a way around rigor. Healthcare data carries real consequences when it’s handled carelessly, and a tool that makes it easy for a non-engineer to build something can just as easily make it easy for that same person to build something unsafe, unless the guardrails are already there before they start.

    That responsibility doesn’t disappear. It relocates. It moves off the individual builder and onto the platform they’re building on. Permissions, data boundaries, and security can’t be configuration steps left to a first-time builder. They have to be the default setting, invisible until something goes wrong. Clinical accuracy carries its own version of this: automating a claims dashboard is a low-risk build, but a tool touching clinical documentation or decision support is a different category entirely, and no amount of conversational ease should let it skip validation.

    The organizations that get this right won’t be the ones that threw the door open widest. They’ll be the ones that made opening it safe in the first place.

    Already taking shape

    We’re seeing this show up in small, unglamorous ways like a dental clinic manager building the exact claims view her team needs instead of waiting on a vendor’s one-size-fits-all dashboard, or a practice leader building a reporting layout that matches how her organization actually runs, rather than reshaping her operations to fit someone else’s software. None of these, on their own, looks like a revolution. Together, they point to a new default: the person who spots the problem is the one who builds the solution, instead of a request sitting in a queue for someone who has to imagine it from a distance.

    That shift is likely to outlast any single new app healthcare adopts this year. The industry was never short on people who understood what needed fixing. What it lacked was a way to let that understanding go straight to work, without a long wait for someone else’s turn, and without trading one risk for another in the process.

    Photo: Tom Werner, Getty Images

    This post appears through the MedCity Influencers program. Anyone can publish their perspective on business and innovation in healthcare on MedCity News through MedCity Influencers. Click here to find out how.

  • Opinion: Will Claude ever win a Nobel Prize for medicine?

    Opinion: Will Claude ever win a Nobel Prize for medicine?

    On Monday morning, the Nobel Prize for medicine was announced. This year, I wonder: Will Claude or a future artificial intelligence agent ever win the most prestigious award for medical discovery?

    Imagine a future AI agent responding to a scientist’s insightful prompt by successfully identifying a completely novel approach to curing cancer, along with a detailed and actionable plan for implementing it. Given the toll of cancer on our species, I suspect few today would consider that a bad outcome.

    But as a former medical school dean who was regularly called upon to adjudicate complex issues of credit, I’m uncertain how credit for such a future world-changing discovery would or should be assigned. Until today, human scientists have been the agents responsible for discovering cancer cures, and for doing so they (and key associates) have been showered with academic credit and awards, perhaps even a Nobel Prize. Are we now entering a world in which some (or all) Nobels will be awarded to Claude, ChatGPT, or their AI successors, rather than human scientists? And if so, would it matter?

    The Nobel statutes don’t mention “human” but refer instead to “persons.” In 2024, two of the three winners of the Nobel Prize in chemistry were given credit for their work on the AlphaFold model at DeepMind — even though many more were involved. So without changes to the rules, a future prize for a discovery made by AI would most likely go to some “persons” given credit for making the AI possible — at least at first. But the committee may elect to change the rules or interpret them differently. The Nobel Peace Prize, for instance, has gone to organizations rather than persons.

    Today, credit for discovery plays a central role in the reward structure of science. As “the currency of the realm,” credit powerfully influences the norms and practices of the research ecosystem. It’s required for scientists to secure appointments, promotions, funding, access to students, and other necessities. It’s also a mechanism for evaluating research impact and providing accountability for research claims.

    It didn’t always work this way. The current credit ecosystem arose in the mid-19th century, as science emerged as a profession alongside the rise of the modern scientific journal. It’s been further modified by many factors, from today’s online publishing platforms to new means for assessing and quantifying scientific impact, and the increasingly interdisciplinary and team-based nature of research.

    As we begin to acknowledge AI as a generator of scientific discovery, will the approach to scientific credit be transformed as well? Current and future scientists would certainly like to know.

    Despite many unknowns, it’s hard to imagine the status quo holding. In perhaps the most likely outcome, humans will continue to be responsible for many discoveries, often aided by AI along the way. The credit ecosystem will continue to recognize these human achievements, while finding ways to appropriately recognize the contributions of their AI collaborators.

    But if AI itself is recognized as the responsible agent for some discoveries — even profoundly important ones, such as a cancer cure mentioned above — how would credit be handled? Would assignment of credit as we know it today even matter?

    In that world, humans might retain (for a while) a desire to acknowledge the role of AI in those discoveries, even bestowing previously human-only awards upon the responsible AI agents. Perhaps some credit would also go to their human creators, those putting forth insightful prompts, and those creatively implementing the work.

    But in a world of predominantly AI-driven discovery, the current role of credit as an incentive for the human research ecosystem would dramatically change.

    In considering this future, we must consider another role that credit plays. Beyond serving as an incentive and accountability mechanism in the human academic research ecosystem, there are commercial incentives for discovery, and credit plays a different role in that setting. A major commercial incentive for biomedical research involves the awarding of patents for discovery, and today only humans are eligible to be named discoverers. If future laws change to allow recognition of AI agents and/or their human creators as discoverers (with or without human collaborators), how might this affect accountability, ownership, and the ability to profit from discoveries?

    For research conducted today in both academic organizations and for-profit companies, ownership of intellectual property is generally held by these organizations rather than the human discoverers now named in patents. Patent law might evolve to allow organizations to name AI agents — even proprietary AI versions — as discoverers. But assigning credit would remain complicated to the extent humans will likely play creative roles in successfully implementing AI-generated ideas, though efforts are underway to create AI-automated research systems.

    Today, the science community is composed of humans who seek and often compete with others for discovery as well as credit, and this feature of scientific culture is believed to play an important role in the success of the enterprise. As AI becomes a key enabler and even primary driver of discovery, the current culture of credit will evolve to accommodate that reality. Changes to the credit economy may be among the many trade-offs we accept to realize the benefits of AI-driven discovery, in biomedical research and other domains of human activity.

    Whether an AI agent will ever receive a Nobel laureate is, at least in part, a question about what jobs we want credit to perform. If it’s mainly an incentive for human scientists and the overall enterprise, its role will change as machines play a greater role in discovery. If credit continues to influence allocation of trust, resources, and responsibility, those needs will persist, necessitating decisions on how best to manage them in an AI dominated research ecosystem. This may be further complicated by recent debates about whether AI agents may evolve into moral agents whose status would justify their receiving credit for “their work.” 

    I don’t know how these questions will ultimately be resolved. And I suspect the answers will differ across diverse domains related to research: human scientific careers, journals, funders, universities, biopharmaceutical companies, patent offices, and yes, prize committees. The current system was designed for a world of human discoverers. Though that day may never be fully behind us, we must begin serious conversations about what changes the age of AI science will bring to scientific credit.

    Jeffrey S. Flier is a Harvard University distinguished service professor and the former dean of Harvard Medical School.