Category: Midwest Bureau

  • Medicare Is More Broken Than We Thought

    Medicare Is More Broken Than We Thought

    Note: “An Arm and a Leg” uses speech-recognition software to generate transcripts, which may contain errors. Please use the transcript as a tool but check the corresponding audio before quoting the podcast.

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    Dan: Hey there. In the first week of October last year, 2025 — a whole bunch of senior citizens in Minnesota got a letter with some bad news. 

    Amy Hockert: A lot of changes coming in 2026. We know that at minimum 160,000 of you, absolutely have to pay attention to this,

    Dan: Their health insurance through Medicare Advantage was going away. 

    Erin: I was so mad. I was like, “No. Now what do I do?” And I look at my husband and said, “Now what?” “

    Dan: Folks like Erin– who lives in small-town Cambridge,Minnesota–  were going to have to find a new plan by the end of Medicare’s annual open enrollment period, which would start in a couple weeks.

    Up until now, Erin had been on a plan from a local nonprofit insurance outfit called U Care.

    UCare offered some of the most generous and affordable plans in Medicare Advantage — the version of Medicare operated by private health insurance companies. 

    But U Care was going belly up.

    FOX 9: The collapse of UCare after 40 years in Minnesota has been swift and stunning.

    Dan: Callers jammed the phonelines at Minnesota’s Aging Pathways hotline — thats the state agency that helps people with Medicare. Kelli Jo Greiner runs it.

    Kelli Jo Greiner: I don’t know any other way to describe it other than total chaos. Our phones were ringing off the hook.

    Dan: Meanwhile, in the Twin Cities suburb of Maple Grove, an insurance broker named Alison Ebert had been getting ready for her busy season, making appointments with her usual clients.

    Alison Ebert: October 1st through October 14th, I always set my appointments with my clients. I always joke I get paid in cookies and coffee because I go to their homes, we sit down. I know their families, I know their kids, their grandkids

    Dan: The day open enrollment started, she got 47 calls — from people she’d never met. People whose coffee and cookies she’d never tasted.  That was new. 

    And more would call. Because more letters were starting to go out.

    Not just from U Care. Other health insurance carriers were dropping out of the area. UnitedHealthcare, BlueCross, Aetna, Humana — all canceled Medicare Advantage plans in counties all over the state. Three counties were left with no Medicare Advantage plans at all. 

    And… this wasn’t just something that was just happening in Minnesota. Almost 3 million seniors across the country had plans in 2025 that would stop being offered to them in 2026.

    And that’s because at their headquarters, insurance companies had done their calculations, assessed their risks, and decided that offering plans to those people would no longer be profitable enough. So, seniors from Maine to California saw the number of available Medicare Advantage plans shrink by the dozen — leaving a lot of them confused, and with fewer, often worse and more costly health insurance options. 

    It’s part of a big new trend — these disappearing acts  have been increasing in recent years, and insurance companies have already signaled that more are coming. Major insurers have already announced intentions to dump plans that currently cover more than two million seniors. 

    We’ve spoken with folks in a dozen states — in rural places like Vermont and North Dakota, and in states with rural and urban centers like Maryland and Minnesota — about how it all went down last year — and what we can take away for this year.

    My colleague Emily Pisacreta and our awesome summer intern Lynn Barbera made those calls. And Emily, you called that experience “eye opening.” 

    Emily: Uh, yeah. We already knew from previous reporting that people had problems with Medicare Advantage. At first this story sort of seemed like one more thing people on Medicare Advantage had to worry about. But it turns out to be more than that. What happened last year — and is about to happen again this fall — showed us big problems, problems that affect everyone who’s on Medicare — or hopes to be one day. There are layers to this. 

    Dan: And we’re gonna peel them back. Get ready for a big dose of Medicare.

    This is An Arm and a Leg, a show about why health care costs so freaking much and what we can maybe do about it. I’m Dan Weissmann, I’m a reporter and I like a challenge. So our job on this show is to take one of the most enraging, terrifying, depressing parts of American life and to bring you a show that’s entertaining, empowering and useful.

    Emily, a while back, we looked at problems with Medicare Advantage. How about we do a little recap?

    Emily: Yeah. 

    Dan: We were taking our first deep look at Medicare itself, and as we said then, it kind of blew our minds. 

    Emily: Before we did that story, I was under the impression that you wake up on your 65th birthday and never have to pay a medical bill again, never have to deal with health insurance companies again. In fact, that’s the dream of Medicare For All. 

    Dan: But it’s not the reality of Medicare as it exists. For one thing, signing up means making a dizzying number of choices. 

    And you basically never escape private insurance companies. No way. Turns out, they run a lot of Medicare — so you could see dozens of different plans offered by different companies. 

    But here’s the most important part: You have to choose between what’s now called Traditional Medicare — run by the U.S. Government — and Medicare Advantage plans, run by private insurance companies. 

    And they both have downsides. 

    Traditional medicare doesn’t cover everything. For outpatient medical care — for doctor visits, outpatient procedures, infusions, physical therapy, X-rays and MRIs, you name it — Medicare only pays 80 percent of the bill.  

    And those other things can get so expensive — the remaining 20 percent can run to thousands of dollars that most seniors don’t have. 

    If you want that covered — and, I mean, you do — you actually have to buy a “supplemental” policy — people call them “Medigap” plans. They’re offered by private insurance companies. And you pay a premium. 

    Oh, and did I mention that you’re already paying a premium to the feds for your Medicare? Yep. Exactly how much depends on your financial situation, but most people pay just over 200 bucks a month.

    Medigap premiums – to the private companies – are on top of that. They vary a lot — by what plan you pick, and by where you live — but the average is another two-hundred and some every month. And that number goes up every year. 

    So you’re paying all that but then you’ve still got another gap. Vision, dental, and hearing. Traditional Medicare doesn’t cover them at all. So Medigap plans generally don’t cover them either. 

    The dark joke is that eyes, ears and teeth are “luxury organs”

    Because who needs to see or hear or chew? 

    So those are some BIG gaps.

    A lot of Medicare Advantage plans offer to fill those gaps:

    MA Ad 2: This card I’m holding in my hand, it’s an example of an all-in-one Medicare Advantage membership card.

    Dan: Lots of them include what’s missing  

    Woman in Ad2: That card helps me with my vision costs, my dental costs.

    Dan: Some of them even subsidize the premium you’d be paying to the feds, even bringing it down to zero. You can see how appealing that is.

    … and insurance companies hammer that appeal home with floods of TV ads

    Plus direct mail, phone calls, and facebook ads out the wazoo. None of which mention the downsides to Medicare Advantage… 

     which are basically: All the downsides we’re all familiar with from dealing with insurance companies. 

    Their network might not include your doctors and providers. It might not include very many providers near you at all. 

    And once you find an in-network provider, the insurance company can make you jump through hoops like pre-authorization. Or deny a claim. And then you get to fight through an appeals process. 

    I talked with a guy in Texas, Robert Wolpa. He’s got HIV, a pacemaker, other stuff. He said he felt like he was spending half his days on hold, waiting to talk with badly-paid, badly-trained people.

    Robert Wolpa: I’m 71. I just turned 71 in November and I’ve got, I’ve got a little of the HIV cognizant crap. Like, my short term memory is gone. And I think to myself, what have I gotten myself into?

    Dan: This is the thing: You can be 65 years old, in totally decent shape, playing pickleball or whatever, never seeing a doctor. 

    But when you pick Medicare Advantage, most of the time you’re also choosing for an older, sicker version of yourself. Who may need to see specialists, and who may not have as much capacity to fight with insurance companies. 

    I mean, most relatively young and healthy people have a hard enough time. 

    This is where Traditional Medicare starts to look much more appealing. Practically every provider takes it, and denials are almost unheard of.

    But for most people, if you’ve chosen Medicare Advantage, it’s a no-backsies situation. 

    You can still sign up for Traditional Medicare, but you may not be able to get a Medigap policy. 

    For one thing, it may not be in your budget. Robert Wolpa got a quote: Almost 500 bucks a month. Like a third of his social security check.

    Robert Wolpa: And I said, okay. Next option.

    Dan: And lots of people don’t have the option at all. In most states, if you don’t sign up at age 65, Medigap plans are allowed to reject you if you have… pre-existing conditions. 

    Sarah Jane Tribble: It’s sort of shocking, actually, right? Like, the Affordable Care Act passes and makes it so that everybody with pre existing conditions can get insurance no matter what, but it leaves out the people who might need that the most, who are 65 and older. 

    Dan: That’s the person who had introduced us to Robert Wolpa, and helped us understand this whole issue. Sarah Jane Tribble,a reporter with our pals at KFF Health News had just published her own story about the pitfalls of Medicare Advantage.

    This comes as a big surprise to a LOT of folks — as Sarah Jane found out while she was reporting her story, and talking about it with friends.

    With all of these… advantage — all the marketing, and all the gaps it fills– Medicare Advantage has grown by leaps and bounds in its 20-some years. 

    At this point, the majority of seniors are on Medicare Advantage.

    So, OK: Long recap, but. That’s what we KNEW a couple of years ago. 

    And it turns out — based on what happened last fall, and what’s about to happen this year — the problems are way worse than we knew. 

    Which brings us back to our friends in Minnesota. In early October 2025.

    News anchor 1: In 90 days, thousands of Minnesotans will lose their Medicare Advantage coverage.

    News anchor 2: Many major health care providers are dropping their Medicare Advantage plans in 2026. 

    Dan: So, Emily. What the heck happened?

    Emily: So that local nonprofit insurance company – UCare– they went broke, and all their Medicare Advantage plans got pulled from the market. Pretty quickly after that, UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and others sent break up letters of their own to thousands of their beneficiaries.

    Lots of people turned to insurance brokers for help. 

    But many brokers weren’t calling them back. Because things had started going haywire for them too. Insurance broker Alison Ebert told us she was used to getting paid in cookies and coffee – and this time around, she would mean that literally — because in the days leading up to open enrollment she got an unusual call from her contact at UnitedHealthcare.

    Alison Ebert: She said, “I just wanna let you know before you get the email, we’re not paying commissions this year.”

    Emily No commissions. No payment from the insurance company for anyone she would enroll in their Medicare Advantage plans. Which is for health insurance brokers — the whole business model. 

    Alison Ebert: And my heart just sunk. That was the first phone call, and one by one thereafter, all the major carriers except for Allina Health Aetna, followed suit.

    Emily: Other brokers in Minnesota told me the same thing. I asked Alison: why do you think they cut commissions? She says a rep for one of the big companies told her the ugly truth. 

    Alison Ebert: With UCare exiting the market,” she said, “Let’s face it, we don’t want everybody that sunk UCare on our plan. And so this is how we’re gonna c- curb enrollments.” 

    Emily:  Alison got the message: These insurance companies wanted to curb enrollments. They specifically didn’t want to insure people who they tho  ught “sunk UCare” — meaning, people who used health care. Who filed claims. Who cost money.If brokers didn’t get commissions for selling plans to these folks, a lot fewer of them would sign up.  

    Alison Ebert: Because they’ve always told us about 80% of the sales comes through brokers like us.

    Emily: Now, a few weeks later, it was October 15, open enrollment was starting, and her phone was ringing off the hook. 47 people on day one. And more every day after that. Plus all her regular clients — the ones whose grandkids she knew by name.

     Alison had to decide what to do  — could she afford to help all those people for free? 

    Alison Ebert: I have kids. I mean, I deserve to get paid. I need to put gas in my tank to go to these people’s homes.  

    Emily: But Alison didn’t think it was right to leave people hanging.

    Alison Ebert: I left a message on my answering machine saying, “You know, due to the fact that we’re not getting paid this season, a lot of brokers left the market and I’m just returning calls as they come. But just be aware that it might take me a couple weeks to get back to you.”

    Emily: Instead of going to everyone’s house, she set up office hours at a coffee shop to be able to see as many people as possible.

    Meanwhile… Kelli Jo Greiner and her colleagues at the state’s Medicare hotline were scrambling too.

    Kelli Jo Greiner: We had wait times of two hours. Nobody wants to wait for even 10 minutes, let alone two hours

    Emily: She and her team had to improvise.

    Kelli Jo Greiner: We have staff that don’t usually do Medicare counseling. They help with, like, long-term care and other areas, and we even put those folks on the phones to help

    Emily: And she wrangled a weekly spot on FOX 9 in the Twin Cities to answer big questions.

    Amy Hockert: Medicare Monday is what we’re calling it. A lot of changes coming in 2026. Kelli Jo, thanks for joining us.

    Kelli Jo Greiner: Well, thank you. I’m glad to be here again. 

    Amy Hockert: All right. Well, let’s roll through it here.

    Emily: Kelli Jo told viewers: The most important thing is to be proactive. If you don’t do anything, the system will put you into traditional Medicare — but without a Medigap plan. Oh, and by the way, she told them: Your drug plan will probably disappear too, unless you sign up for a new one.

    So — she said, the good news, as far as it goes is: Right now you have a choice. And it’s just like the one you had when you were 65. You get to basically start over if you want, and get a Medigap plan even if you have a pre-existing condition. This is a special situation, they can’t reject you. 

    And once you’re on they can’t tell you which doctors to see. Almost every doctor in the country takes traditional Medicare.   

    Kelli Jo Greiner: And for many people that is a huge advantage,’cause we have a lot of snowbirds here that go south for the winter.

    Emily: But she says most people she talked with decided they just couldn’t afford those Medigap premiums. They were stuck with Medicare Advantage. Only now they had fewer and crummier Medicare Advantage plans to choose from. 

    Also, they were more expensive than these folks were used to. 

    Kelli Jo says a lot of people had been on plans with no monthly premium — but now all those plans were gone.  

    Kelli Jo Greiner: and so they ended up having to switch to a plan with a premium

    Emily: And in a lot of cases, without some extra benefits that Kelli Jo says are a big draw. Like discounts on groceries — or free gym memberships, a feature called Silver Sneakers.

    Kelli Jo Greiner: and I cannot even tell you how many people called us about Silver Sneakers. They were so upset about that change.

    Emily: So people ended up paying more than they were used to —  and getting less. 

    Dan: OK. So to recap: some Medicare Advantage plans disappeared.

    Emily: Yes.

    Dan: The remaining plans weren’t great.

    Emily: Right.

    Dan: And most people chose them anyway, because they couldn’t afford Medigap.

    Emily: Correct. And we can expect more of the same this year– and for who knows how many years ahead.

    Dan: So Medicare Advantage is getting shakier– even while it keeps growing. 

    Coming right up: how the dynamics behind all of this add up to trouble for all of Medicare. And what we can maybe do about it.   .

    This season of An Arm and a Leg is a co-production of Public Road Productions and KFF Health News — that’s a non-profit newsroom covering health issues in America. Their reporters are amazing — you’re about to hear from another of them. We’re honored to be their colleagues.

    Dan: Kelli Jo Greiner told us many folks who lost their Medicare Advantage plans  just couldn’t afford Medigap supplements. 

    Which, as we’ve been learning, has been one of the big dynamics behind the growth of Medicare Advantage in the first place. 

    Emily: Our colleague Julie Appleby found recently, that dynamic is getting starker.

    Julie’s a senior correspondent with our pals at KFF Health News.  

    Julie Appleby: I cover all things health insurance pretty much, uh, from the Affordable Care Act to Medicare, other kinds of health insurance programs, uh, that kind of thing. 

    Emily: Earlier this year, Julie got a call from a broker in Illinois.

    Julie Appleby: And he was telling me that more than, like, 80 of his customers were enrolled in a Medicare supplement,

    Emily: A specific plan. One that usually had low premiums. 

    Julie Appleby: But they suddenly raised their rates by 45%. And he said, “In my 49 years of doing business as a broker, I’ve never seen a premium increase be effective immediately on everyone. So I thought, “Hey, I’m gonna start looking into this.”

    Emily:  She found some good data from a company called Telos Actuarial — which showed: this price hike was part of a trend.

    Julie Appleby: There were increases going on kind of throughout the industry.

    Emily:. On average, the data showed premiums on Medigap went up almost 17% from the previous year.

    Not as high as that one plan with 45 percent increase, but still nothing to sneeze at. Brokers and other experts told her: That kind of increase used to be almost unheard of. But for the last bunch of years, it’s become a new normal. 

    Julie sees a connection with the growth of Medicare Advantage. 

    To understand it — and why everything about Medicare could be getting shakier and shakier — Julie’s gonna introduce us to a key term: Risk Pool. It’s a big part of how insurance prices get set.

    Julie Appleby: Insurance is a giant pool, right? We all are in the pool, and everybody kinda shares the cost. The insurance company has to sit down and try to figure out, “Well, gee, I’ve got this pool of people. How sick are they? How, how often are they gonna go to the doctor? How often are they gonna be hospitalized?” And then calculate out, “Okay, so what might that cost me?”

    Emily: So a lot depends on: Who’s in the risk pool for any given plan? If Medigap plans are more expensive than Medicare Advantage — but provide better coverage — then, who’s gonna choose the Medigap? People who think they’re gonna *need* that better coverage. Sicker people.

    And with millions of people getting the chance at do-overs — because their Medicare Advantage plans got nuked — these Medigap insurers have a bunch of new customers, who — it seems reasonable to think — may be sicker.  

    Julie Appleby: So these carriers are, then having to think, “Wow, I’m taking all these people on in this region, so I’m gonna have to raise my premiums to cover what might be those expected costs.” 

    Emily : And as premiums grow and grow, what we could see is a kind of vicious cycle. Because as new people turn 65, they’re looking at Medigap premiums that are harder and harder to afford.

    So more and more people are attracted to Medicare Advantage. I spoke with a researcher named Laura Skopec – she studies Medicare at the Urban Institute, an economic and social policy think tank. Here’s how she put it: If this trend continues — with Medigap prices driving more people to Medicare Advantage

    Laura Skopec: We’re gonna see a traditional Medicare that is sicker and wealthier, which is sort of a weird combination, but it’s gonna be sort of the sickest people that really need good access to specialists, wanna be able to go to the cancer center, you know, any sort of doctor they wanna go to, and the people that can afford Medigap

    Emily: Like, the sicker you are, the more you need this, and the more people who need it, the more expensive the supplements will be.

    Laura Skopec: The risk pool just keeps on worsening.

    Emily: So, expect Medicare Advantage to keep growing. And — as Laura points out — getting more expensive.

    Laura Skopec: The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission says we spend about fourteen percent more for everyone who chooses Medicare Advantage over traditional Medicare, and that was really not the point of the Medicare Advantage program, right? It was supposed to use sort of private sector processes to lower costs in Medicare, and it has not done that. 

    Emily: In fact, insurance companies are under increasing scrutiny for overcharging the government for Medicare Advantage. 

    The feds have been trying to impose some rules to cut down on those extra profits – all very technical stuff which we could devote a whole episode to.     

    Dan: Maybe we should

    Emily: Yeah and crackdown may have played a role in insurance companies pulling some of these plans off the market. And they say they’re gonna keep yanking more plans off the market unless they get MORE federal dollars. 

    Laura: They’re saying that their costs are going up for paying claims, which is probably true, and they point to market exits and other issues as, like, we need a pay bump here to stay in the market.

    Emily: All of this — pulling plans off the market, reducing benefits, trying to control who enrolls in their plans — all of this stuff is likely to keep happening. 

    So we should talk about what that looks like on the ground, and how seniors can navigate all these changes. 

    Remember Erin in Cambridge, Minnesota? 

    What happened to her really exemplifies how this kind of thing can play out. And how we can support each other.

    So Erin had gotten kicked off her plan when the whole enterprise behind it, UCare, collapsed.

    Erin had been really happy with UCare for the four years she was on one of their Advantage plans.

    Erin: You call their customer service and they are very helpful. I loved it.

    Emily:  she had access to specialists. 

    Erin: A thoracic, a neurologist, a urologist, a nephrology. An ENT specialist. 

    Emily: Erin had suffered four heart attacks in her late fifties. Because she couldn’t work, she started getting social security and Medicare early — when she was 58. She doesn’t really remember how she ended up picking Medicare Advantage over traditional Medicare.

    But it was working for her. Until they pulled the rug out from underneath her.

    Erin: I did not want them to go anywhere. I heard that, I was just in tears.

    I was so mad. I was like, “No. Now what do I do?” And I look at my husband and said, “Now what?” “

    Emily: And she says her husband had the answer immediately.

    Erin:Well, we’ll just call Desi.”

    Emily: We’ll just call Desi.

    Dan: Wait a minute–  Who is Desi?

    Emily: You gotta meet Desi. 

    Desi Panek: I’m Desi Panek, and I work at the Seven County Senior Federation here in Mora, Minnesota.

    Emily: That’s a member-led organization of seniors in eastern and central Minnesota who came together to advocate for themselves, and to help each other with transportation and other stuff seniors need. Including: signing up for — and dealing with — Medicare. 

    I met Desi and her boss Lisa Krahn, the Federation’s director, as they were gearing up for this year’s annual enrollment period. 

    Lisa: It can’t be as bad as it was last year 

    Emily: Yeah yeah. 

    Desi: We’ll find out soon. 

    Lisa: Oh, God 

    Emily: Yep, hold onto your hat. 

    Emily: Yep, they’re still dealing with the fallout from last year. This is Lisa:

    Lisa Krahn: Still quite a few people who show up, who are calling now, who don’t realize that they haven’t had a plan all year saying, “I just don’t have anything because my old plan left. Well, I wasn’t really paying attention to the mail they were sending me,” kind of a thing.

    Emily: Some of those people only found out when they got a bill in the mail. Or when they tried to pick up a prescription, and had to pay out of pocket cuz they didn’t have a drug plan anymore. 

    Luckily, Erin got the news before it was too late. She and her husband called Desi, and Desi helped them enroll in a new Medicare Advantage plan. Which Erin says, isn’t as good. 

    Erin: Right now I’ve got $1,700 out of pocket going to a pair of hearing aids

    Emily: She’s not a fan of the customer service. And she says she had to stop taking one of her preventative medications because her drug plan changed.

    Desi and Lisa are operating very much at ground level helping people like Erin, but they definitely have thoughts about the big picture –especially the stark choice between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare.

    Lisa Krahn: original Medicare is that thing you’ve been waiting your whole life to get. It’s good everywhere. And once you’re in, you’re in. 

    Emily: But it’s become too expensive for most people. Meanwhile, Medicare Advantage can really limit people’s access to care.

    Lisa Krahn: So, looking for a middle ground between those, it’s, it’s… There, there should be better choices, frankly, instead of such extreme ones.

    Desi Panek: Extreme is a really good word for that. I agree. 

    Emily: Extreme meaning there’s a big hole in one and there’s too many…

    Lisa Krahn: Restrictions on the other. But all the millions we’re dumping into advertising and these private companies, that could have filled the holes on original Medicare a long time ago. And that’s just antithetical to the function and the existence of the insurance industry, which, like the monarchy, maybe we can stop believing in. I’m revealing myself as a single-payer Medicare for All advocate, but we need better Medicare, frankly, you know? It always been shortchanged.

    Emily: Dan, speaking of Medicare For All.

    Dan: Yeah we really shouldn’t do an episode like this without mentioning it. Especially because it’s been coming up so much in this year’s election season. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary, and Medicare for All was his number-one pitch.

    Abdul El Sayed: Yes, we really can guarantee healthcare in this country. Yes, we really can do it while spending a lot less and getting a lot more if our healthcare doesn’t still fund tens of millions of dollars in healthcare CEO, uh, salaries on top of it.

    Emily: People like Lisa — and Abdul El-Sayed — think of Medicare for All as a way to also plug the holes in existing Medicare. 

    Dan: Well, huh. OK, I mean, one thing I’m really tuning into is that all these big gaps in Medicare are all driven by the fact that ALL of Medicare — our big public benefit — is actually set up so it requires insurance companies to make a profit in order for it to function. Whether they’re selling Medicare Advantage plans, or Medigap policies.

    But then, how do Medicare for All advocates say that spreading Medicare to everybody makes the math actually work better?

    Emily: It’s all about that term Julie Appleby introduced us to:  Risk pool. How “risky” the people you’re insuring — the pool — are as a whole. Meaning, how much health care they need on average. The calculations change a lot when the pool is everyone, including people who are 25 as well as 65 and 95 — and when tax money funds health care directly instead of filtering it through private health insurance companies to administer and also take a profit.

    In fact, a recent study out of Yale estimates that Medicare For All — that is a Medicare that is completely void of private insurance companies — would reduce annual health expenditures by 1 trillion dollars every year.

    Dan: But that’s not just taking insurance companies out of Medicare — it’s taking them out of the whole U.S. health care system.

    Emily: Right. In the meantime, some politicians in Washington are talking about tweaks — big and small — to just Medicare itself. 

    Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders–

    Dan: the original Mr. Medicare For All 

    Emily: Yeah – in the meantime, he says we should extend traditional Medicare to cover vision, hearing, and dental. He’s introduced a bill in the Senate to do just that. 

    And Oregon Senator Ron Wyden recently introduced a bill that would put an out-of-pocket max on traditional Medicare. That way, people wouldn’t need supplements as much, and Medicare Advantage wouldn’t look as tempting.

    Both of those ideas would mean putting more federal money toward traditional Medicare.

    Dan: Which doesn’t SEEM like something Congress is likely to do. But what this whole story shows is: it seems like it’s gonna cost us either way. Either we put more public dollars into traditional Medicare, or we keep paying higher prices, collectively and individually,

    As for the here and now. If you have Medicare Advantage, but you don’t have a Desi or a Lisa to call, Emily, they gave you a breakdown of what you need to know.

    Emily:Yep. Their first piece of advice: open every piece of mail from your insurance company. That’s where you’re going to find out whether your plan is being cancelled. Or where you might find out they’re trying to auto-enroll you into a new plan, which might not be the best one for you.

    Desi Panek: The past couple of years we’ve had plans that end a specific plan, but will auto-enroll the e- the enrollee into another plan in the same company.

    Lisa Krahn: Crosswalking

    Desi Panek: Yes, so that’s a big deal. Pay attention to your mail. Um, you’re gonna get stuck with huge premiums if you just let it roll.

    Emily: And find someone to talk to.

    Remember Kelli Jo who runs the Medicare hotline for Minnesota? Every single state has one of those agencies. They’re called SHIP — S H I P — state health insurance assistance program. Google your state, SHIP, and Medicare

    If you can’t get through, there’s always insurance brokers. Desi has some advice on measuring up whether a broker is trustworthy.

    Desi Panek: Ask them if they sell every product available to you in your area. That’s one of the biggest things. I think that a lot of people just assume they’re gonna go to a broker or an agent and they’re gonna get the full scope, and that’s not necessarily true.

    Emily: You might want someone who sells Medigap supplements as well as Advantage plans. Someone who does that may be less inclined to push you into whatever’s paying them the highest commissions.

    Desi Panek: Word of mouth is a big deal for a lot of people, so asking your friends, your neighbors, uh, “Who did you work with? Are you happy? Are you unhappy? What was the experience like?”

    Dan: Talking to your friends and neighbors. It’s like, we gotta rely on each other.

    Emily: Which is why I’m kind of obsessed with this Senior Federation thing. People banding together to share information and resources to navigate this ongoing mess.

    Desi and Lisa’s group has been operating since 1975. There used to be a robust network of similar groups across the state. Theirs is the last one, but Desi says they’re going strong.

    Desi Panek: We’ve got our beautiful community and our thrift stores that keep our doors open and allow us to give that good information out, um, whether it’s what people wanna hear or not.

    Dan: And it went by kinda fast but I think I heard her say thrift stores?

    Emily: Yep! They have a side hustle. 

    Lisa Krahn: We run two thrift stores, the One More Time stores, which give us financial independence. So we’re not dependent on just memberships and just counseling fees or service fees. 

    Emily: That’s awesome, yeah, I’m dying to go to those thrift stores. I saw it on the website and I was like…

    Desi Panek: Did you see that we won Minnesota’s best thrift store?

    Emily: Stop it.

    Desi Panek: I mean it.  

    Emily: That’s so cool. Oh my God. 

    Lisa Krahn: By the Minnesota Star Tribune, yes. It was a popularity contest.

    Emily: Amazing. Wow.

    Dan: Wow for sure. Emily, thank you so much for all of this reporting.

    So here’s where we landed: Medicare is way more broken than we knew!  And we already knew it was kind of a confusing mess with a lot of holes. 

    Fixing it will require a huge lift.  The kind of thing that hasn’t seemed like a political possibility. And everybody will have BIG differences of opinion about how a fix should work. There are people who think the government shouldn’t be involved in health care at all. 

    Meanwhile, we’ve got what we’ve got.  We’ve got each other. 

    And… you just never know what might be possible.

    Next time on An Arm and a Leg, we’ll hear about what might be the most radical health care experiment since Medicare itself. 

    And the two guys — a Democrat and a Republican — who made it happen.

    Till then, take care of yourself. 

    This episode of An Arm and a Leg was produced by Emily Pisacreta, with help from our summer intern Lynn Barbera and me, Dan Weissmann— and edited by Ellen Weiss. Izabella Kulkarni provided additional production help.

    Reporting for this story was supported in part by Arnold Ventures. Listeners like you are our biggest source of support, and we need you more than ever. If you like what you’re hearing and want it to continue, head to arm and a leg show dot com, slash, support.  

    Adam Raymonda is our audio wizard.

    Our music is by Dave Weiner and Blue Dot Sessions. 

    Amanda Boyd is our Operations Manager. Bea Bosco is our consulting director of operations. 

    An Arm and a Leg is produced in partnership with KFF Health News. That’s a national newsroom producing in-depth journalism about health issues in America and a core program at KFF, an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism.

    Zach Dyer is senior audio producer at KFF Health News. He’s editorial liaison to this show.

    An Arm and a Leg is distributed by KUOW, Seattle’s NPR news station.

    And thanks to the Institute for Nonprofit News for serving as our fiscal sponsor.

    They allow us to accept tax-exempt donations. You can learn more about INN at INN.org.

    Finally, thank you to everybody who supports this show financially. Listeners like you are our biggest source of funding.

    You can join in any time at arm and a leg show, dot com, slash: support.

    Thanks! And thanks for listening

  • Hospitals Have a Little-Known Tool To Prevent Medical Debt. Here’s How It Works.

    Hospitals Have a Little-Known Tool To Prevent Medical Debt. Here’s How It Works.

    If you have medical debt, there’s a good chance you owe money to a hospital.

    One way patients can avoid medical debt is through hospital financial assistance, also known as charity care. Most of the nation’s hospitals offer free or discounted medical care to patients with very high medical debt or low incomes.

    Getting financial assistance, however, can be challenging. Many patients don’t know that hospitals offer financial help, surveys show, and complex application forms leave others stymied.

    Hospitals often demand that applicants turn over bank statements, pay stubs, tax returns, divorce filings, or other materials, and submit their applications in person, by mail, or by fax.

    “They don’t make it easy,” said Neale Mahoney, a Stanford University economist who studies medical debt.

    Such hurdles leave many patients with unpaid bills they should never have had to pay in the first place. In a single year, hospitals and health systems billed patients for at least $2 billion that they likely didn’t owe, one analysis found.

    As healthcare costs climb and more people lose their coverage, states and hospitals are testing an emerging approach to fix this problem: automatically screening patients to see if they qualify for assistance and proactively wiping out debt when they do. This is known as “presumptive eligibility.”

    Under this approach, patients may have the cost of their care wiped out before they see any bills — but not always. Hospitals differ on when, how, and for whom they use auto-enrollment, potentially impinging on patients’ finances.

    Here’s what you need to know about how auto-enrollment works.

    What is hospital financial assistance?

    In many states, hospitals set their own criteria for whom they provide financial aid. Eligibility is typically based on income for the patient’s entire household. The closer patients are to poverty, the less they have to pay. Patients with middle incomes and insurance are sometimes eligible for discounts, especially if their bills would gobble up a big chunk of what they earn.

    At least 11 states require hospitals to wipe out bills for low-income patients, though income cutoffs vary. Georgia, for example, mandates free care for anyone with income slightly above the federal threshold for poverty. In several states — including Oregon, North Carolina, and Maryland — patients can earn double that amount and still get free care.

    But in most states, many patients must complete applications to receive assistance.

    Several states in recent years have launched investigations and passed legislation designed to make it easier for people to get help. Research into medical debt, however, suggests gaps persist.

    How many hospitals use auto-enrollment?

    Nearly all nonprofit hospitals say they screen and automatically reduce bills for certain patients.

    Under the Affordable Care Act, nonprofit hospitals must make reasonable efforts to find people who are eligible for help before they take patients to court, sell their debt to collection agencies, or ding their credit over bills. Presumptive eligibility is one way hospitals can comply with the regulation, which took effect in 2016.

    In the first year under the new rules, about 70% of tax-exempt hospitals nationwide said they screened patients and proactively reduced bills, according to an analysis of federal data for Tradeoffs by the independent research institute RTI International. As of 2022, that figure was nearly 90%.

    The federal law doesn’t apply to for-profit and public hospitals, which don’t have to report the actions they take before going after patients for unpaid bills.

    In six states, policymakers require hospitals to use presumptive eligibility and skip applications for certain patients. Those states are California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, North Carolina, and Oregon.

    Who is eligible to be automatically enrolled in financial assistance?

    In most states, hospitals decide which patients can skip the application.

    Common groups automatically screened include people who are homeless, deceased, or already enrolled in state or federal programs to help low-income households with housing, food, or prescriptions. Other hospitals have more unique criteria, like Christus Health, which will write off bills for anyone in a religious order who took a vow of poverty.

    Eligibility criteria are often buried in official policies and hard to find or decipher. Some hospitals share little to no public information about whom they will proactively screen. Thirteen hospitals owned by Ascension, one of the nation’s largest Catholic health systems, state only that they may screen patients “with a sufficient unpaid balance.”

    Across the half-dozen states with presumptive eligibility mandates, eligibility rules vary. Maryland, for example, requires hospitals to proactively wipe out bills only for patients who already get government help for food or utilities but are ineligible for Medicaid. In Illinois, lawmakers created less-stringent requirements for rural hospitals compared with urban facilities.

    In Oregon, starting in 2024, hospitals had to screen anyone who owed more than $500 and every patient on Medicaid or who is uninsured. In 2025, roughly 80% of Oregon patients who got financial help with bills never filled out an application, based on data shared publicly by the first 26 hospitals to do so. The state’s legislature this year raised the screening threshold to include patients who owe at least $1,500 for a single visit.

    Without an application, how do hospitals figure out who gets help?

    Hospitals have several ways to find patients eligible for financial assistance.

    Typically, hospitals turn to public records, any information patients have previously volunteered, or tools from consumer credit companies to estimate whether patients qualify to have bills reduced.

    For example, if a hospital sees that a patient lives in a high-poverty ZIP code or has no address listed, that could be enough to deem them eligible. Many pay companies to run employment and credit checks on patients to determine whether they qualify for free care.

    Hospitals may also consider how likely patients are to pay bills, regardless of how much they earn. This is called “propensity to pay.” California and Oregon prohibit its use, concerned that hospitals may try to collect more often from people who dutifully pay their bills even though their incomes qualify them for financial assistance.

    When do hospitals screen patients for financial aid?

    It depends.

    Illinois, North Carolina, and Oregon require hospitals to screen certain patients before they send any bills. California hospitals will have to do the same starting in 2027.

    Some hospitals voluntarily screen patients before sending bills; others try to collect money from patients first. As long as they screen patients before suing them for very overdue bills, hospitals can stay within the letter of the federal law that pushed many of them to embrace presumptive eligibility.

    For example, the policy of Christus Health is to screen patients only “after all other eligibility and payment sources have been exhausted.”

    Anna Stelter, vice president of policy for the Texas Hospital Association, said hospitals want to investigate other options for payment — like Medicaid or county safety net programs — before they give out financial assistance.

    “We do want to make sure that whoever is financially responsible for that care is identified and pays,” Stelter said. “Charity care is the relief of last resort.”

    Hospitals’ publicly posted policies may also be fuzzy about when they will screen for patients likely eligible for help. For example, Cook Children’s Health Care System in Fort Worth, Texas, says its goal is to determine a patient’s eligibility “as soon as sufficient information is available.”

    Who pays the bills when patients get free care?

    In one sense, we all do. Taxpayers cover some or all of the cost of financial assistance, though the amount varies by hospital.

    About half the nation’s hospitals are nonprofit and legally get a pass on paying most taxes. KFF estimates that nonprofit hospitals pocketed $24 billion in 2020 that they would otherwise have paid as income, sales, or property taxes.

    Government-owned and for-profit hospitals have their own sets of tax benefits to help offset costs for low-income patients. Government hospitals often get additional taxpayer support, and for-profit hospitals generally receive smaller government subsidies, like additional payments for caring for high numbers of uninsured and Medicaid patients.

    Whether taxpayer dollars fully cover hospitals’ costs for financial assistance depends on the amount of government support they receive — information often not publicly available. It also hinges on how many patients need help, how many meet hospitals’ criteria for assistance, and how many get through an application. Research shows hospitals spend widely different amounts on financial assistance, from less than 1% of yearly expenses to more than 7%.

    Philanthropy and hospitals’ income cover costs not absorbed by tax dollars.

    This article is part of “Hidden Help,” an investigative series from Tradeoffs and KFF Health News about how hospitals can protect their patients from the life-altering harms of medical debt.

    Melanie Evans is a reporter for Tradeoffs, a nonprofit newsroom reporting on healthcare’s toughest choices. Sign up for the weekly newsletter to get the latest stories every Thursday morning.

    Tradeoffs’ reporting for this series was supported, in part, by the California Health Care Foundation, the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation, and the Solutions Journalism Network.

  • Rural MAHA Followers Say Trump Health Policies Haven’t Reached Their Communities

    Rural MAHA Followers Say Trump Health Policies Haven’t Reached Their Communities

    About half of rural voters identify with Make America Healthy Again, a sprawling political movement championed by the Trump administration, but most said President Donald Trump’s healthcare policies have not benefited their communities, according to a new poll from The Associated Press in partnership with KFF.

    About 8 in 10 rural voters — an important voting bloc for Trump and fellow Republicans in recent elections — said the Trump administration’s policies have had a negative effect or no impact on the health of people where they live. Most MAHA supporters, 68%, also feel this way, according to the national survey of more than 2,000 rural registered voters.

    The findings signal an apparent disconnect between the Trump administration’s MAHA-branded policy priorities and rural America’s perception of their reach and effectiveness.

    Iowa pastor Mike Jager, 58, is a registered Republican and considers himself part of the MAHA movement. The Trump administration’s health policies have had “minimal” impact on the health of his community, Jager said, but he added that Trump’s health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is moving the needle “in the right direction.”

    “It’s a beginning,” Jager said. “It’s a big ship to try and turn around and course-correct.”

    Kennedy has used the MAHA label to support various agendas, including abandoning long-standing vaccine guidance, researching ultraprocessed foods, and investing in regenerative agriculture.

    Jager lives in Sumner, Iowa, “less than a quarter mile from where the corn ends and the city begins.” He’s seen family members and neighbors develop diseases that he believes resulted in part from exposure to agricultural chemicals and consumption of unhealthy, processed foods.

    In the June Republican primary for governor, Jager voted for Zach Lahn, a businessman and farmer, who ran on a MAHA platform and beat out Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra. He plans to vote for him again in November.

    A photo of Mike Jager standing in front of an altar inside of a church.
    Jager said that President Donald Trump’s health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is moving the needle “in the right direction.” (Miriam Alarcón Avila for KFF Health News)

    Many Rural Voters Are Prioritizing Health Issues

    About two-thirds of rural voters who support MAHA said it’s “extremely” or “very” important to them to vote for a candidate who does, too, while only 4 in 10 rural voters overall said the same.

    Trump sought to seize on MAHA support during his campaign for another term two years ago. Now, amid tight midterm races, Kennedy has campaigned to galvanize the movement’s support. In May, he attended a MAHA bill signing with Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, and in August, he went fishing with Lahn, posting about it on social media.

    Yet the survey indicates voters are noticing “this weird split in the Trump administration” between what Kennedy messages and what Trump says and does, said David Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University.

    “It’s this mix of things coming out of D.C., out of different pieces of the administration, that’s confusing people,” Peterson said.

    In Iowa, concerns about what’s causing rising cancer rates are “a big deal,” he said. For many people who identify with MAHA, being healthy includes taking on corporate agriculture and pharmaceutical companies that they think cause cancer, he added.

    “The sort of populist messaging around that is appealing right now,” Peterson said.

    In the poll, views on healthcare access and costs largely diverged along party lines. Most Democratic and independent voters said the Trump administration’s healthcare policies have had a negative impact on their healthcare costs and the health and well-being of people in their communities. Republicans were likelier to say there hasn’t been an impact.

    Talking on the phone from her 200-acre farm in Carroll County, Iowa, 71-year-old Donna Klocke said that her husband had died from cancer and that she has neighbors who also have cancer.

    “It’s just very prevalent,” Klocke said. “We’re in a farming community. We use chemicals and pesticides and all kinds of things that aren’t necessarily good for us.”

    Klocke, a Democrat, said the MAHA movement is a good idea because she cares about being healthy, but she does not consider herself part of it and will not be voting for a candidate who represents the movement.

    Kennedy, who was an anti-vaccine activist before entering politics and has sent mixed messages to Americans about getting the measles vaccine, scares her.

    “Measles are coming back and polio,” Klocke said. “It’s the measles that really gets me. It’s like, do you not understand how dangerous it is?”

    A photo of Donna Klocke standing in front of a cornfield in Iowa.
    Donna Klocke cares about being healthy but does not consider herself part of the Make America Healthy Again movement. Her husband died from cancer after a life spent farming the family’s 200 acres in Carroll County, Iowa. (Kathyrn Gamble for KFF Health News)

    Survey Reflects Angst Over Healthcare

    About half of rural voters said their communities don’t have enough doctors or other healthcare providers, and even more said there aren’t enough mental health workers specifically. The share of rural voters who said their community does not have enough hospitals increased to 35% from 21% in a similar question asked in a KFF-Washington Post survey in 2017.

    And as with the general population, healthcare, gas, and grocery costs are top pain points. More than 6 in 10 rural voters said they were worried about healthcare costs.

    The level of worry varied based on coverage, with rural voters enrolled in employer plans or Medicare less likely to be worried. The survey found that 80% of working-age rural voters on Medicaid were very or somewhat worried about healthcare costs. Last year, Republicans passed a tax and spending bill that cut over $900 billion in projected Medicaid spending over a decade and mandated new eligibility requirements.

    Among rural voters who purchase their own insurance, such as the individual coverage plans available on Affordable Care Act marketplaces, 77% said they were worried.

    In the tiny community of Lipan, Texas, west of Dallas, Kim Solis and her husband have a handyman-and-home-remodel business and get their insurance on the marketplace. Since Trump was elected again, their premium payment jumped from zero to $166 a month. Their copays went up, and their deductibles each increased by $2,000.

    Solis, 62, said she worries what will happen if they get a big medical bill.

    “Certainly, we’d be in a world of hurt trying to take money out of savings or getting it out of our 401(k) just to be able to do something about it,” she said.

    Most MAHA Voters Are Also MAGA — But Not All

    Like the general population, rural voters said they trust their own doctors and healthcare providers for health information over government agencies or officials, according to the poll.

    Trust in Kennedy and Trump fell largely along partisan lines. About 10% of rural Democratic voters reported having a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in Kennedy, compared with 74% of rural Republican voters. About 5% of rural Democrats and 69% of rural Republicans said they trust Trump a “great deal” or “fair amount” for reliable health information.

    While Make America Great Again and MAHA identities are “linked in a lot of ways,” the rising costs of healthcare and groceries pose a challenge for those committed to the MAHA principles that Kennedy promotes, said Peterson, the Iowa State professor.

    Buying healthy food “becomes, ‘I can’t afford to do that because of Trump’s policies,’” he said.

    In Stamping Ground, Kentucky, Alma Johnson, 65, works as night security at a horse farm. Johnson said gas had gone up but her overall cost of living had decreased since Trump took office.

    Johnson voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024 and said she “pretty much” likes how Trump is running the country. But she said she is not a MAGA devotee, preferring to “think for myself.”

    MAHA, however, is an easy sell for Johnson because, she said, she doesn’t think people should be able to buy junk food through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

    Still, she said she hasn’t seen much impact from the Trump administration’s healthcare policies, including the new food pyramid.

    “It takes a long time to change people, their habits, their thoughts, or the things they do,” Johnson said.

    About the Poll

    The KFF-AP Rural Voters Survey was conducted online and by telephone Aug. 12-24, 2026, among 2,241 registered voters living in rural areas, defined as census tracts that fall within codes 5-10 of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2020 Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes. Voters were reached through a combination of the probability-based SSRS Opinion Panel and a registration-based sample from the L2 voter file. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, including design effects due to weighting. Error margins are larger for subgroups. In collaboration with the AP, KFF researchers worked to design the survey sample and questionnaire and analyze and report findings.

    This report is from a collaboration between KFF Health News and The Associated Press.

  • These 100 Nursing Homes Face Perilous Flood Risk. Minnesota Shows What Can Happen.

    These 100 Nursing Homes Face Perilous Flood Risk. Minnesota Shows What Can Happen.

    NEW RICHLAND, Minn. — Floodwater seeped through the nursing home’s front door just before sunrise.

    Inside the New Richland Care Center, staff members rushed to move 36 residents out of the building on Sept. 19 while they still could. They pushed elderly residents in wheelchairs through 4-inch-deep water to buses waiting in the parking lot, said nursing home administrator Robert Johannsen.

    Inches turned to feet as the last three residents were wheeled out on hospital beds, lifted “as high as they can go” to escape the rising water, Johannsen said. Firefighters and volunteers from a high school football team pushed the beds to safety across the street, he said.

    “It’s pretty devastating,” Johannsen said of the now-shuttered nursing home. “There was at least 2½ feet of water flowing down the hallways.”

    The small-town, government-run nursing home is about 100 yards from a drainage ditch in southern Minnesota. It has flooded three times in 16 years, including during the September storm that was large but far from historic, according to the National Weather Service.

    New Richland is one of 100 U.S. nursing homes that face some of the nation’s worst flood risk — where at least 2 feet of water during a big storm could endanger residents — according to a KFF Health News analysis of peer-reviewed flood hazard mapping provided by Fathom, a United Kingdom-based company considered a leader in flood simulation.

    The KFF Health News analysis builds upon a 2025 investigation that used Fathom’s mapping to identify at least 170 U.S. hospitals at risk of significant flooding. Fathom’s estimates are generally seen as more modern than official flood maps released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which are often out of date and don’t account for the changing climate.

    “Every community across the United States carries some level of flood risk,” said Oliver Wing, the chief scientific officer at Fathom. “There is this idea that unless you can either see the ocean or the Mississippi from your front room, then you’re not at risk of flooding — when the reality is that anywhere rain can fall, it can flood.”

    The U.S. has nearly 15,000 nursing homes housing more than 1.2 million people. In floods and other disasters, the residents are especially vulnerable because many are medically frail, cognitively impaired, or immobile. Some require daily care that can’t be reliably provided during a disaster, yet they are also so fragile that relocation could send them to the emergency room.

    Additionally, many nursing homes were built near coastlines or waterways in the 1970s, before widespread concern about climate change, to keep residents cool and content, said David Dosa, the head of geriatrics at the UMass Chan Medical School.

    “It’s a lot more comfortable than being in an urban jungle,” Dosa said. “Obviously, now you’re in places that are a little more at risk.”

    Dosa has studied nursing home evacuations since Hurricane Katrina flooded the New Orleans area in 2005. Dozens of people were killed in facilities that tried to ride out the storm and flooded after the levees broke.

    After Katrina, the nursing home industry pivoted toward evacuations, although some of those decisions also led to deaths, Dosa said.

    In preparation for the next three Gulf hurricanes, more than 270 nursing home evacuations were recorded, according to a peer-reviewed study Dosa co-wrote in 2011. Within the 30 days that followed each storm, the regions hit saw a cumulative total of 277 more nursing home resident deaths than expected, suggesting a “significant increase in mortality and morbidity associated with evacuation,” according to the study.

    “It’s Russian roulette. You’re damned if you do. You are damned if you don’t,” Dosa said of evacuations. “Older adults and disasters don’t mix.”

    A similar study published in 2024 found a 16% greater chance of ER visits among residents of Florida assisted living facilities who were evacuated before Hurricane Irma in 2017. People in assisted living facilities generally need less care than those in nursing homes.

    “Assisted living residents are quite frail in their own right,” said Cassandra Hua, an assistant professor at UMass Lowell, who led that study. “But nursing home residents are usually at higher risk. So anything you see in assisted living might be multiplied in a nursing home setting.”

    Even a few inches of flooding can interrupt nursing home care and force an evacuation. For each of the 100 nursing homes identified by the KFF Health News analysis, Fathom’s data predicted a 100-year flood event could bring at least 2 feet of water to the buildings.

    In an aerial image, a baseball field beside a road is flooded with water. The road is dry.
    Aerial footage shows lingering floodwater in New Richland, Minnesota. The white-roofed New Richland Care Center can be seen along the upper-left edge of the ponding water. (WCCO/CBS Minnesota)

    A 100-year flood is an intense weather event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, but it can happen more often. Climate scientists largely agree that extreme weather is worsening as the planet warms, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture and causes sea levels to rise.

    And storms are drenching regions once considered at lower risk for flooding, where essential facilities and entire communities might be less prepared, said Drew Gronewold, a University of Michigan climate scientist. In other regions, storms are now less frequent but becoming “off-the-charts” powerful, he said.

    “Storm tracks are changing their trajectory,” Gronewold said. “These types of, in air quotes, ‘unanticipated events’ are going to be part of our future.”

    Some of the nursing homes KFF Health News has identified as at risk have flooded in the past five years, including facilities in Florida, Kentucky, Texas, and Washington.

    Five of the facilities flooded in 2012 as Superstorm Sandy clobbered New York, according to a report from the Natural Resources Defense Council, while a sixth, the elevated Seagate Rehabilitation and Nursing Center, narrowly rode out the storm. In Indiana, more than 150 people were evacuated from the five-story Munster Med Inn during Hurricane Ike in 2008. Members of the National Guard carried some residents down flights of stairs in the dark.

    A photograph from above of two men carrying a person in a wheelchair down a flight of stairs.
    Rescuers from the Indiana National Guard and the Munster Fire Department evacuate a resident of the Munster Med Inn in Indiana, in the wake of Hurricane Ike in 2008. More than 150 residents were evacuated, according to a U.S. Army news release. (Michael B. Krieg/Indiana National Guard)

    Then there is the New Richland Care Center. Local media reports show it was evacuated due to flooding in 2010 and 2016, then partially surrounded by floodwater in 2023, before the Sept. 19 evacuation.

    Storms dropped 4 to 8 inches of rain on much of southeastern Minnesota the day before, setting off widespread flooding, said National Weather Service meteorologist Brennan Dettmann. The rainfall was heavy for September but would not have been out of place in July, he said.

    It was too much for New Richland. Storm runoff from nearby farms pooled in a low-lying baseball diamond at the edge of town before swamping nearby streets. Johannsen, the nursing home administrator, said maintenance workers who were trying to fix sewer drains called him in the middle of the night to warn about flooding in the park across the street.

    “They said, ‘You need to come in. The water is rising,’” Johannsen said. “At that point, I think the water was a good 30 feet away from the building. I wasn’t really concerned.”

    A man stands in front of a building and the area next to the building behind him is flooded with water.
    The New Richland Care Center in southeastern Minnesota flooded on Sept. 19, forcing the evacuation of 36 residents. Some residents were pushed on hospital beds through feet of floodwater to escape the facility, administrator Robert Johannsen says. (WCCO/CBS Minnesota)

    Wing, the Fathom scientist, said the danger should have been obvious. Although Minnesota’s natural landscape once would have absorbed heavy rains, the farmland around New Richland funnels runoff into creeks and ditches that lead to a low-lying bowl near the nursing home. It’s almost as if the location is designed to flood, Wing said.

    “The choice has been made that we don’t want water in our crop fields. We want it in the nursing homes of vulnerable people,” Wing said. “That’s the choice that has been made, politically, in that part of Minnesota.”

    Inside the ruined nursing home, receding floodwaters left behind knee-high watermarks, mud-smeared floors, and a lingering smell that Johannsen said reminded him of growing up on a farm. Water destroyed treasured photo albums left behind in a low cabinet, he said.

    Johannsen said the nursing home — which, with 85 employees, is one of the largest employers in town — will be closed for five months to a year for repairs. He said all its residents were moved into a school gymnasium and have been resettled across about nine area nursing homes.

    “It was an awful experience that I hope nobody ever has to go through. Because these people lost homes,” Johannsen said. “My staff is losing their jobs. And I don’t know what to do.”

    Two people stand inside a large room and talk. Areas of the floor have standing water and two
    New Richland Care Center administrator Robert Johannsen (left) examines the damaged nursing home in the wake of a Sept. 19 flood that forced the evacuation of 36 residents. Johannsen says the facility will be closed for months for repairs. (WCCO/CBS Minnesota)

    Methodology

    For this analysis, we used data from Fathom, a United Kingdom-based company that specializes in flood-risk modeling worldwide. To assess the United States’ vulnerability, Fathom uses sophisticated computer simulations and detailed terrain data covering the country. It accounts for environmental factors such as climate change, soil conditions, and many rivers and creeks not mapped by other sources. Fathom’s modeling has been peer-reviewed and used by insurance companies, the World Bank Group, the Nature Conservancy, and government agencies in Florida, Texas, and elsewhere. The Iowa Flood Center has validated Fathom’s U.S. data.

    Through a data use agreement, Fathom shared U.S. mapping data that predicts areas with at least a 1% chance of flooding in any given year. Fathom’s data estimates the effects of coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding and accounts for dams, reservoirs, and other structures that defend against floods.

    To identify at-risk nursing homes, we used a Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services database to map more than 14,000 nursing homes. With GPS coordinates as the center point, we created a circle with a 100-yard radius around each nursing home, which in most cases captured the building and nearby grounds. We then mapped Fathom’s flood-risk data to see where it overlapped with these circles. We started by looking for nursing homes where at least 20% of the circle’s area had a predicted flood depth of at least 1 foot. That gave us an initial list of more than 750 nursing homes.

    Then we visually inspected those facilities using mapping software and Google Maps to confirm that floodwaters were predicted to reach or surround the buildings. We trimmed our list to the 100 nursing homes where the most flooding was predicted, with additional weight given to deeper water.

    Our analysis does not account for how flooding beyond a nursing home’s footprint could still affect employees or patients. And it does not assess what steps facilities may have already taken to prepare for severe weather events.

    Fathom provided guidance and feedback as we developed our analysis.